L’industrialisation oui, mais pas à n’importe quelles conditions

Dans les années qui ont suivi la crise financière de 2008, nombre de gouvernements à travers le monde se sont inquiétés que leur économie soit trop lourdement concentrée sur les services financiers. D’autres ont compris que l’endettement à outrance représentait un risque réel pour les équilibres macroéconomiques de leurs pays. Depuis, et en quelque sorte en parallèle, un discours volontariste sur la planification industrielle a pris forme.. L’idée étant qu’il faut favoriser le développement de l’économie dite réelle, tout particulièrement dans les pays occidentaux, comme l’illustrent de façon presque caricaturale les prises de position du président Trump aux États-Unis.

C’est pourquoi il est particulièrement intéressant de noter une récente prise de position du FMI, à contre-courant de cette tendance. Que cela nous vienne d’une institution réputée pour la sobriété de ses analyses devrait nous inciter à la prendre très au sérieux. Le FMI vient donc de publier un « chapitre » dans le World Economic Outlook d’avril 2018 qui remet en cause la croyance très répandue sur la contribution du secteur industriel comme meilleure garantie d’une croissance forte s’appuyant sur une importante hausse de la productivité.

Les économistes de l’institution soutiennent que les pays en voie de développement pourraient passer directement d’une économie agricole à une économie de services sans passer par un stade intermédiaire dominé par l’emploi industriel. À ceux qui voudraient opposer les deux secteurs, les auteurs de l’étude rappellent que l’industrie et les services partagent souvent les mêmes besoins : de bonnes infrastructures, y compris dans les télécommunications, une main d’œuvre de qualité ainsi qu’un environnement des affaires attractif.

Il convient à mon sens de considérer les résultats de cette étude avec prudence. D’abord parce que le secteur industriel est un catalyseur de croissance évident pour la plupart des pays africains. Néanmoins, promouvoir les exportations issues de l’industrie locale en jouant sur la dévaluation compétitive et les bas-salaires montre certaines limites. Prendre le risque d’une guerre des monnaie est toujours dangereux sur le plan de la stabilité économique, sans compter que cela est peu praticable pour de nombreux pays africains partageant une monnaie commune.

Mais surtout, l’Afrique doit mettre au cœur de sa stratégie de développement la notion de « travail décent ». La priorité est d’investir dans des secteurs à haute intensité de main-d’œuvre tout en garantissant un seuil minimum de protection sociale aux travailleurs, formels ou informels, ainsi que des formations professionnelles. Miser sur les bas salaires constitue une bombe sociale à retardement si le gouvernement n’accompagne pas cette stratégie d’une politique d’éducation et de formation pour augmenter le niveau général de la main d’œuvre. L’investissement dans les ressources humaines est un levier essentiel de la richesse des nations. Dans l’emploi industriel, la qualification des travailleurs est essentielle pour survivre dans un contexte de compétition économique mondiale.

Les pays africains ne peuvent pas parvenir à un développement durable sans une transformation structurelle de leurs économies. Pour réussir cette transformation, l’industrialisation doit donc être une priorité, en évitant l’écueil de reproduire les approches traditionnelles reposant essentiellement sur « le manufacturier » et l’utilisation massive de main d’œuvre à bas coût.

Par ailleurs cette industrialisation ne sera réussie sans une transformation des économies rurales ou résident encore près de 70% de nos populations.

La troisième révolution industrielle que nous vivons nous oblige à intégrer les nouvelles technologies, comme la fabrication additive (via les imprimantes 3D) ou l’Internet industriel, qui rendent également l’entrepreneuriat industriel plus aisé.

N’étant pas contrainte par les schémas anciens de l’industrialisation comme en Occident ou en Asie, l’Afrique peut trouver l’agilité et la flexibilité nécessaires pour faire évoluer ses entreprises dans cette nouvelle économie en utilisant des modes de gouvernance inédits permettant de valoriser son capital jeunesse. À nous Africains de trouver le paradigme industriel permettant de renforcer la cohérence entre politiques sociale, industrielle et entrepreneuriale qui fera notre succès dans ce XXIe siècle.

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