Face à la démographie galopante, quelles politiques publiques ?

Je poursuis ma réflexion sur la transition démographique qu’est en train de vivre notre continent. Nous avons posé le problème dans ses grandes tendances dans notre dernier billet, mais il convient aussi je crois de voir comment nous pouvons agir face à ce phénomène.

L’un des leviers sur lesquels il est possible d’agir pour maîtriser davantage la croissance de la population, c’est la fécondité. On l’a dit, cela passe par l’éducation des filles et des jeunes femmes, et par la sensibilisation de tous aux enjeux liés à une augmentation anarchique de la population. Malheureusement, certains dirigeants voient encore l’augmentation de la population comme une marque de puissance, et misent sur le fameux « dividende démographique », en oubliant trop souvent que ce dividende n’est réalisable que si le reste suit.

Je m’explique : sans infrastructure d’éducation et de santé efficaces, sans créations d’emplois décents par millions, les jeunes générations ne seront pas bien formées, ne s’intégreront pas au marché du travail et ne seront pas en bonne santé. Elles ne pourront donc participer qu’à la marge à l’enrichissement économique national, si encore ces jeunes vivent suffisamment longtemps pour devenir des travailleurs actifs et trouvent un emploi. Autre phénomène croissant, en grande partie dû à l’absence de bonnes infrastructures d’éducation et de santé : l’exode. En effet, il semble évident que les dizaines, voire centaines de milliers, de jeunes qui traversent le Sahara puis la Méditerranée au péril de leur vie et prennent le risque de tout quitter, s’inscrivent dans cette démarche parce qu’ils estiment n’avoir rien d’autre à perdre que leur vie dans cette aventure. Ce message de désespoir doit nous interpeller, parce que si la population continue de grandir à ce rythme, les émigrés seront de plus en plus nombreux.

Les gouvernants doivent donc se pencher sur les voies et moyens de faire baisser le taux de fécondité. Nous avons déjà écarté la coercition pour atteindre cet objectif. Mais il y a d’autres stratégies, d’autres politiques publiques qui peuvent être tentées. On l’a vu dans certains pays comme en Afrique du Sud, au Kenya ou au Malawi. En Éthiopie, le gouvernement a par exemple mis en place un réseau très dense de 42 000 agents de santé communautaire. Ceux-ci ont permis d’alléger le coût de la santé de 39% entre 2005 et 2015, ce qui est déjà énorme, mais ils ont aussi permis de sensibiliser des millions de femmes au contrôle des naissances. Cette expérience pourrait être étendue à d’autres pays, voire au continent tout entier.

Autre levier possible, le planning familial. Rappelons qu’en 2011, neuf gouvernements d’Afrique de l’Ouest, le Fonds des Nations unies pour la population (UNFPA), l’Agence française de développement et plusieurs grandes fondations privées avaient signé un accord, le « Partenariat de Ouagadougou », destiné à favoriser la planification familiale. Il existe des obstacles religieux, politiques et sociaux, mais le planning familial reste l’une des méthodes éprouvée pour la réduction de la fécondité à condition d’avoir accès aux moyens modernes de contraception. Sur ce volet également des politiques publiques peuvent être mises en place. Et si les États ne souhaitent pas s’engager directement, ils peuvent faire appel et laisser travailler librement des ONG spécialisées dans ce domaine.

Selon les études disponibles, en 2013 dans le monde, 63 % des femmes de 15-49 ans vivant en couple utilisaient une méthode de contraception, et 57 % une méthode moderne (pilule, stérilet ou stérilisation). Mais pour l’Afrique subsaharienne, seulement en moyenne 20 à 25% des femmes avaient accès à un moyen de contraception, certains pays tombant même en dessous de 10% comme le Mali ou l’Erythrée.

À ce titre, l’Afrique du Nord représente une exception sur le continent. L’Algérie, l’Égypte, le Maroc ou la Tunisie ont connu des transitions démographiques plus rapides avec une fécondité actuelle comprise entre deux et trois enfants par femme. Un chiffre que l’on peut lier à la forte proportion d’utilisation de moyens de contraception : entre 60 % et 68 %. Au sud du Sahara, seule l’Afrique du Sud s’approche de cette moyenne mondiale avec 60%.

Cela démontre que des politiques publiques peuvent répondre efficacement au défi de la réduction du taux de fécondité. Nous devons seulement nous y atteler.

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  355. Zune and iPod: Most human beings look at the Zune towards the Contact, still once seeing how thin and amazingly minimal and light-weight it is, I take into consideration it to be a pretty exclusive hybrid that brings together features of the two the Contact and the Nano. It’s Pretty colourful and lovely OLED display is marginally more compact than the touch screen, nonetheless the player by itself feels Really a bit smaller sized and lighter. It weighs more than 2/3 as a great deal, and is drastically smaller inside of width and height, despite the fact that getting particularly a hair thicker.

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  373. Zune and iPod: Most folks compare the Zune toward the Touch, nonetheless as soon as watching how skinny and shockingly low and light it is, I choose it in the direction of be a quite distinctive hybrid that combines qualities of possibly the Touch and the Nano. It can be unbelievably vibrant and stunning OLED show is marginally lesser than the contact screen, nonetheless the participant alone feels Extremely a little bit smaller sized and lighter. It weighs more than 2/3 as considerably, and is appreciably smaller inside width and height, even though remaining only a hair thicker.

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  378. Arms down, Apple’s app retail outlet wins by means of a mile. It’s a significant decision of all forms of apps vs a quite disappointed alternative of a handful for Zune. Microsoft includes programs, specially inside of the realm of game titles, however I am not absolutely sure I might require in the direction of guess upon the long run if this part is considerable towards yourself. The iPod is a considerably greater decision inside that case.

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