Contrôle des naissances ou meilleures politiques de développement ?

L’heure est au débat sur la démographie de l’Afrique. Rapports, experts, responsables politiques, s’expriment depuis quelques semaines sur le sujet, sensible dans la plupart de nos pays, de la démographie galopante et du contrôle des naissances. Certains reprennent de vieilles théories malthusiennes et comparent, selon une certaine logique, le taux de croissance démographique au taux de croissance de l’économie. D’autres voient dans l’accroissement démographique un signe de vivacité et de richesses futures.

Regardons d’abord les chiffres : le dernier rapport du Département des affaires économiques et sociales de l’Onu (DESA), « Perspectives de la population mondiale, la révision de 2017 », indique que l’Afrique comptera près de 4,5 milliards d’habitants d’ici 2100, soit 40% de l’humanité contre 1,3 milliard aujourd’hui (17% de la population globale). L’Afrique aura une population comparable à celle de l’Asie, qui selon la même source, devrait voir sa population se stabiliser à 4,8 milliards, alors qu’elle est de 4,5 milliards aujourd’hui (60% de la population mondiale). La population mondiale devrait alors être de 11,2 milliards d’habitants contre 7,5 aujourd’hui.

Dès 2030, le Nigeria devrait compter 410 millions d’habitants, soit plus que les Etats Unis. Le rapport onusien ajoute un point intéressant : l’essentiel de la croissance démographique mondiale devrait se concentrer dans seulement neuf pays, la plupart africains, dont le Nigéria, la République Démocratique du Congo, l’Ethiopie, la Tanzanie, et l’Ouganda.[1] Actuellement, la population africaine croit de 2,5% par an contre 1,7 au niveau mondial.

La croissance de la population tient à plusieurs facteurs : le taux de fécondité (5,5 en 2006 contre 5,0 en 2016) élevé – avec l’exemple extrême du Niger qui compte 7,4 enfants par femmes en âge de procréer -, mais aussi l’augmentation de l’espérance de vie qui a gagné 20 ans en Afrique depuis 1950 et se situant aujourd’hui à 57 ans. Un point à rappeler aussi : la densité de population en Afrique est l’une des plus faibles du monde.

On ne peut bien sûr être aussi précis sur les taux de croissance économique. Mais les projections optimistes indiquent pour les années à venir une progression de 4 à 6 points de croissance par an en Afrique. Un chiffre envié par la plupart des autres régions du monde. Nous avons déjà dit combien par ailleurs, ces taux de croissance ne prenaient pas en compte toute la réalité économique de nos pays, le secteur informel notamment, et qu’ils étaient bien souvent déformés dans un sens ou dans l’autre.

Face à cette situation, quel parti choisir ? Faut-il même choisir un camp ? Est-ce possible ? A l’heure où la Chine est revenue sur sa politique forcée de limitation des naissances, l’Afrique doit-elle à son tour tenter de limiter par la contrainte les naissances alors que des études montrent le nombre désiré d’enfants par femme en Afrique subsaharienne est supérieur à cinq[2] ?

Les enfants sont encore vus en Afrique comme une source de richesse et une soupape de sécurité économique : main d’œuvre pour les travaux agricole et autres, mais aussi assurance retraite dans des pays qui n’en connaissent pas. Autant de facteurs à prendre en compte et qui rendent selon nous impossible les politiques contraignantes. D’ailleurs personne ne juge que la Chine a été handicapée dans son développement économique par sa forte démographie et ses 1,3 milliards d’habitants.

En revanche, faire de la santé et de l’éducation des femmes une priorité, favoriser l’accès aux moyens de contraception modernes tout en créant les conditions d’une émancipation réelle des femmes et des jeunes filles, afin qu’elles puissent choisir et non subir leurs grossesses, voilà qui pourrait permettre de faire baisser le taux de fécondité.

[1] Le rapport souligne par ailleurs que de 2017 à 2050, la moitié de la croissance de la population mondiale sera concentrée dans seulement neuf pays: l’Inde, le Nigeria, la République démocratique du Congo, le Pakistan, l’Ethiopie, la Tanzanie, les Etats-Unis, l’Ouganda et l’Indonésie.

[2] USAID, « Desired number of children: 2000-2008 », DHS Comparative Reports, n°25, Février 2010.

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332 thoughts on “Contrôle des naissances ou meilleures politiques de développement ?

  1. Pour moi , il n’y pas de problème de boom démographique . Nous avons un problème de développement économique et social .Nous avons assez de ressources pour nourrir tous les africains . Les terres et les fleuves sont partout . Nous avons un problème de leadership politique et des résistances culturelles . Avons nous la mentalité de développement comme l’entend l’occident ?

  2. L’analyse est enthousiasmante et même mobilisatrice, mais elle l°est au prix de quelques libertés avec une partie de la réalité de l°Afrique qui est sa diversite extreme. II me semble que le titre meme du papier enferme le débat dans un dilemme sans nuances, car il peut bien aussi être °contrôle des naissances pour de bonnes politiques de développement°. Raisonner au niveau de l°Afrique est une facilité statistique, qui ne renvoie hélas a aucune réalité économique ni politique. La variété des situations, bien plus que de simples variations, fait que ce qui peut être parfaitement exact ici devient rigoureusement faux ailleurs. Qui peut sérieusement résumer par une moyenne, les dotations de l°Afrique du Sud (en ressources naturelles, en infrastructures et en diversification de l’économie et même en institutions et effectivité des politiques publiques) et celle de n’importe quel pays sahéliens ( pénalisés par le climat, la piètre qualité du capital humain, l’absence d’institutions économiques, la fragilité de l’etat et l’inefficacité des politiques publiques). II y a des pays, comme le Niger, pris dans un piège malthusien de pauvreté pour lesquels un contrôle des naissances, si la chose est possible, permettrait une transition démographique, sans quoi il y a pas de scénario crédible de développement économique et social. II y a certainement quelques pays pour lesquels la démographie n’est pas un obstacle ou pas encore. L°Afrique politique est un voeux, l°un des plus chers aux africains et c’est une excellente chose. La pauvreté de masse est une réalité, l’une des mois uniformes du continent. Ce n’est pas par pur hasard qu’il n’y a pas de citoyens du Botswana parmi les °migrants° qui se jettent dans la mediteranee ou attaquent périodiquement les barbelés de Melilla, toujours au péril de leures vies.

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