Contrôle des naissances ou meilleures politiques de développement ?

L’heure est au débat sur la démographie de l’Afrique. Rapports, experts, responsables politiques, s’expriment depuis quelques semaines sur le sujet, sensible dans la plupart de nos pays, de la démographie galopante et du contrôle des naissances. Certains reprennent de vieilles théories malthusiennes et comparent, selon une certaine logique, le taux de croissance démographique au taux de croissance de l’économie. D’autres voient dans l’accroissement démographique un signe de vivacité et de richesses futures.

Regardons d’abord les chiffres : le dernier rapport du Département des affaires économiques et sociales de l’Onu (DESA), « Perspectives de la population mondiale, la révision de 2017 », indique que l’Afrique comptera près de 4,5 milliards d’habitants d’ici 2100, soit 40% de l’humanité contre 1,3 milliard aujourd’hui (17% de la population globale). L’Afrique aura une population comparable à celle de l’Asie, qui selon la même source, devrait voir sa population se stabiliser à 4,8 milliards, alors qu’elle est de 4,5 milliards aujourd’hui (60% de la population mondiale). La population mondiale devrait alors être de 11,2 milliards d’habitants contre 7,5 aujourd’hui.

Dès 2030, le Nigeria devrait compter 410 millions d’habitants, soit plus que les Etats Unis. Le rapport onusien ajoute un point intéressant : l’essentiel de la croissance démographique mondiale devrait se concentrer dans seulement neuf pays, la plupart africains, dont le Nigéria, la République Démocratique du Congo, l’Ethiopie, la Tanzanie, et l’Ouganda.[1] Actuellement, la population africaine croit de 2,5% par an contre 1,7 au niveau mondial.

La croissance de la population tient à plusieurs facteurs : le taux de fécondité (5,5 en 2006 contre 5,0 en 2016) élevé – avec l’exemple extrême du Niger qui compte 7,4 enfants par femmes en âge de procréer -, mais aussi l’augmentation de l’espérance de vie qui a gagné 20 ans en Afrique depuis 1950 et se situant aujourd’hui à 57 ans. Un point à rappeler aussi : la densité de population en Afrique est l’une des plus faibles du monde.

On ne peut bien sûr être aussi précis sur les taux de croissance économique. Mais les projections optimistes indiquent pour les années à venir une progression de 4 à 6 points de croissance par an en Afrique. Un chiffre envié par la plupart des autres régions du monde. Nous avons déjà dit combien par ailleurs, ces taux de croissance ne prenaient pas en compte toute la réalité économique de nos pays, le secteur informel notamment, et qu’ils étaient bien souvent déformés dans un sens ou dans l’autre.

Face à cette situation, quel parti choisir ? Faut-il même choisir un camp ? Est-ce possible ? A l’heure où la Chine est revenue sur sa politique forcée de limitation des naissances, l’Afrique doit-elle à son tour tenter de limiter par la contrainte les naissances alors que des études montrent le nombre désiré d’enfants par femme en Afrique subsaharienne est supérieur à cinq[2] ?

Les enfants sont encore vus en Afrique comme une source de richesse et une soupape de sécurité économique : main d’œuvre pour les travaux agricole et autres, mais aussi assurance retraite dans des pays qui n’en connaissent pas. Autant de facteurs à prendre en compte et qui rendent selon nous impossible les politiques contraignantes. D’ailleurs personne ne juge que la Chine a été handicapée dans son développement économique par sa forte démographie et ses 1,3 milliards d’habitants.

En revanche, faire de la santé et de l’éducation des femmes une priorité, favoriser l’accès aux moyens de contraception modernes tout en créant les conditions d’une émancipation réelle des femmes et des jeunes filles, afin qu’elles puissent choisir et non subir leurs grossesses, voilà qui pourrait permettre de faire baisser le taux de fécondité.

[1] Le rapport souligne par ailleurs que de 2017 à 2050, la moitié de la croissance de la population mondiale sera concentrée dans seulement neuf pays: l’Inde, le Nigeria, la République démocratique du Congo, le Pakistan, l’Ethiopie, la Tanzanie, les Etats-Unis, l’Ouganda et l’Indonésie.

[2] USAID, « Desired number of children: 2000-2008 », DHS Comparative Reports, n°25, Février 2010.

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